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- Date: Mon, 7 Mar 94 04:30:09 PST
- From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
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- Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #257
- To: Info-Hams
-
-
- Info-Hams Digest Mon, 7 Mar 94 Volume 94 : Issue 257
-
- Today's Topics:
- Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 March
-
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- ----------------------------------------------------------------------
-
- Date: Mon, 7 Mar 1994 00:01:57 MST
- From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
- Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 March
- To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
-
- /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
-
- DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT
-
- 06 MARCH, 1994
-
- /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
-
- (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
-
-
- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT
- ---------------------------------------------------------
-
- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 065, 03/06/94
- 10.7 FLUX=095.5 90-AVG=106 SSN=101 BKI=2222 1223 BAI=007
- BGND-XRAY=B1.2 FLU1=4.3E+06 FLU10=1.9E+04 PKI=2233 1223 PAI=009
- BOU-DEV=015,017,016,013,006,012,015,033 DEV-AVG=015 NT SWF=00:000
- XRAY-MAX= C2.3 @ 1237UT XRAY-MIN= A8.9 @ 0710UT XRAY-AVG= B1.7
- NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1845UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2355UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
- PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2320UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0850UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
- BOUTF-MAX=55342NT @ 2352UT BOUTF-MIN=55315NT @ 1858UT BOUTF-AVG=55324NT
- GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
- GOES6-MAX=P:+141NT@ 1820UT GOES6-MIN=N:-083NT@ 0357UT G6-AVG=+092,+033,-032
- FLUXFCST=STD:098,100,101;SESC:098,100,101 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,025/025,030,030
- KFCST=3454 4433 4454 4444 27DAY-AP=054,056 27DAY-KP=4647 65*3 6566 6455
- WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
- ALERTS=
- !!END-DATA!!
-
- NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 MAR 94 is not available.
- The Full Kp Indices for 05 MAR 94 are: 1+ 1- 1+ 2- 1o 1- 2- 3-
- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 MAR 94 are: 5 3 5 6 4 3 6 11
- Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 06 MAR is: 7.5E+06
-
-
- SYNOPSIS OF ACT
- --------------------
-
- SUMMARY COVERS THE PERIOD FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
-
- Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C2
- x-ray event was recorded at 06/1237Z. Region 7682 (S19W81) has
- declined in area and spot number and produced no activity this
- period. Regions 7680 (S11W29) and 7685 (S08E09) were the most
- active producing numerous B-class/SF flares. Two new regions
- were numbered this period: Region 7686 (N08W46) and Region
- 7687 (N18E16). Since appearing on the disk, both new regions
- have shown white light growth. All other regions are quiet and
- stable.
-
- Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
- very low to low. Regions 7685,7686, and 7687 all have the
- potential for producing C-class activity.
-
- The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
- levels the past 24 hours.
-
- Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
- expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three
- days with minor storm conditions expected at high latitudes on
- days two and three.
-
- STD: Levels of geomagnetic activity have increased to active
- levels just prior to the release of this report (early on 07
- March). It would appear that the coronal-hole related
- disturbance has arrived. Minor storming has been observed over
- many high latitude sites over the last 3 hours (07/00Z to 03Z).
- Levels of auroral activity have likewise increased with only a
- slight equatorward migration of the northern oval apparent at
- the present time. Local night-sector substorming should
- produce moderate levels of auroral activity over the next
- several days.
-
- Event probabilities 07 mar-09 mar
-
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
-
- Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 mar-09 mar
-
- A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor Storm 15/25/30
- Major-Severe Storm 10/15/15
-
- B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/35
- Minor Storm 20/30/35
- Major-Severe Storm 10/20/20
-
- HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
- Some regions experienced notable enhancements in both signal
- quality and MUF. Conditions are presently (early on 07 March)
- beginning to wane, with poor propagation being observed over
- some high latitude sites. Poor to very poor propagation is
- expected over the next 48 to 72 hours on transpolar and
- transauroral circuits. Middle latitudes should see good to
- fair propagation with occasional night-sector poor propagation.
- No improvements are expected for at least the next 48 to 72
- hours.
-
-
- COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
- ========================================================
-
- REGIONS WIT
- --------------------------------------------------------
- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
- 7680 S11W29 020 0000 BXO 02 002 BET
- 7682 S19W81 073 0100 CAO 11 007 BET
- 7684 S08W16 007 0010 BXO 03 003 BET
- 7685 S08E09 342 0100 DAO 07 014 BET
- 7686 N08W46 037 0030 CRO 04 005 BET
- 7687 N18E16 335 0040 BXO 04 010 BET
- 7678 S11W52 043 PLAGE
- REGIONS DUE TO RET
- NMBR LAT
- NONE
-
-
- LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 MARCH, 1994
- ----------------------------------------------------
- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP
- NONE
-
-
- POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 MARCH, 1994
- --------------------------------------------------------
- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
- 06/ 1752 B1818 N17E23 DSF B2.9 24
-
-
- INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
- ---------------------------------------------------
- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT
- EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
- NONE VISIBLE
-
-
- SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
- ------------------------------------------------
-
- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
- ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
- 05 Mar: 0000 0003 0006 B4.3
- 0348 0352 0354 B2.5
- 1211 1223 1241 B3.7 SF 7682 S17W66
- 1350 1351 1354 B1.6 SF 7680 S13W08
- 1848 1851 1853 B2.7
- 2229 2230 2235 SF 7680 S11W14
- 2301 2304 2306 B2.4
-
-
- REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
- ------------------------------------------------
-
- C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
- Region 7680: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (28.6)
- Region 7682: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (14.3)
- Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (57.1)
-
- Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.
-
-
- EVENTS WIT
- ----------------------------------------------------------------
-
- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
- ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
- NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
-
- NOTES:
- All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
- and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
- All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
- associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
- x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
- optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
-
- Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
-
- II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
- III = Type III Sweep
- IV = Type IV Sweep
- V = Type V Sweep
- Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
- Loop = Loop Prominence System,
- Spray = Limb Spray,
- Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
- EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
-
-
- ** End of Daily Report **
-
- ------------------------------
-
- End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #257
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